Kiribou, Issaka Abdou Razakou, Nikiema, Theodore, Dimobe, Kangbéni, Zoungrana, Benewinde Jean-Bosco, Ouedraogo, Valention, Yang, Huiyi, Santika, Truly ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3125-9467 and Dejene, Sintayehu W. (2025) Climate change and variability as drivers of vegetation dynamics in Bontioli Natural Reserve, West African drylands. Environmental Challenges:101175. ISSN 2667-0100 (Online) (doi:10.1016/j.envc.2025.101175)

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Abstract

Climate change significantly impacts vegetation dynamics, and plant productivity through change in temperature, rainfall and climate patterns. This leads to biodiversity loss, reduces carbon sequestration potential particularly in fragile ecosystems such as drylands. This study investigates the vegetation response to climate change and variability in the Bontioli Natural Reserve (BNR), within the West African savanna. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), retrieved from Landsat imagery on Google Earth Engine platform, alongside with bioclimatic data, retrieved from the climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas (CHELSA) were used to analyse the vegetation changes for the past three decades (1993 to 2023). The analysis is performed by applying Generalize Additive Modelling (GAM). The results indicate a significant shift in vegetation dynamics at a rate of 0.051 ± 0.043/year, with periods of decline linked to rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall. The model with R² of 0.836, a significant p < 2e-16, high deviance explained of 0.935, and a RMSE of 0.073 suggests that climate change has significantly impact the vegetation dynamics. This revealed that temperature trends and prolonged droughts are the primary drivers of vegetation stress, while sporadic rainfall events promote brief recovery phases. The peak of NDVI was observed around 250-300 mm of rainfall, and 26–28°C for temperature. Spatial analysis of NDVI with fractional vegetation cover (FVC) revealed a continuous decline of dense vegetation across the BNR. These findings revealed the vulnerability of the BNR ecosystems to global warming, highlighting the need for adaptive conservation strategies. A safeguarding measure with climate smart policies can play a crucial role in improving the vegetation resilience to climate change effects. Conservationists and policymakers should focus on integrative adaptive long-term climate-resilient plant species. Addressing these challenges can contribute to the achievement of SDG 13 and 15 within the broader West African Savannah.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	drylands ecosystem, climate change, natural reserve, NDVI, GAM
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > Q Science (General) S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Engineering & Science Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Centre for Society, Environment and Development (CSED) Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Centre for Society, Environment and Development (CSED) > Climate Change
Last Modified:	06 May 2025 15:18
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/50314

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