Mohamed Hamid Elamin, Amal ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4078-2049, Ansah, John Pastor and Elamin, Amal (2023) Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the UK using a multi-state population model. Frontiers in Public Health, 11:1190197. pp. 1-10. ISSN 2296-2565 (Online) (doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1190197)

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Abstract

Objectives: With the aging UK population, oral diseases are expected to increase. Exploring credible projections is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of emerging population-level interventions on oral disease burden. This study aims at providing a credible, evidence-based projection of the adult population in the UK with dental caries and periodontal diseases.
Methods: We developed a multi-state population model using system dynamics that disaggregates the adult population in the UK into different oral health states. The caries population was divided into states: no caries, treated caries, and untreated caries. The periodontal disease population was disaggregated into no periodontal disease, pocketing between 4mm and <6mm, 6mm and <9mm, and 9mm or more. Data from the 2009 UK dental health survey was used to estimate age and gender-specific prevalence rates as input to the model.
Results: Of the population ≥ 16 years, the number with carious teeth is projected to decrease from 15.742 million in the year 2020 to 15.504 million by 2050, representing a decrease of 1.5%. For individuals with carious teeth, the elderly population is estimated to constitute 62.06% by 2050 and is projected to increase 89.4% from 5.079 million in 2020 to 9.623 million by 2050. The adult population with periodontal pocketing is estimated to increase from 25.751 million in 2020 to 27.980 million by 2050, while those with periodontal loss of attachment are projected to increase from 18.667 million in 2020 to 20.898 million by 2050. The burden of carious teeth and periodontal diseases is anticipated to shift from the adult population (16-59 years) to the elderly population. Elderly population with carious teeth is estimated to rise from 32.26% in 2020 to 62.06% by 2050, while that for periodontal disease is expected to increase from 42.44% in 2020 to 54.57% by 2050.
Conclusion: This model provides evidence-based plausible future demand for oral health conditions, allowing policymakers to plan for oral health capacity to address growing needs. Because of the significant delay involved in educating and training oral health personnel, such projections offer policymakers the opportunity to be proactive in planning for future capacity needs instead of being reactive.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	oral diseases; caries; periodontal diseases; system dynamics; United Kingdom; projections
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) R Medicine > R Medicine (General) R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Education, Health & Human Sciences Faculty of Education, Health & Human Sciences > School of Human Sciences (HUM)
Last Modified:	14 Dec 2023 13:42
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/43846

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