He, Sha, Yan, Dingding, Shu, Hongying, Tang, Sanyi, Wang, Xia and Cheke, Robert ORCID: 0000-0002-7437-1934 (2023) Randomness accelerates the dynamic clearing process of the COVID-19 outbreaks in China. Mathematical Biosciences, 363:109055. ISSN 0025-5564 (Print), 1879-3134 (Online) (doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109055)

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Abstract

During the implementation of strong non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), more than one hundred COVID-19 outbreaks induced by different strains in China were dynamically cleared in about 40 days, which presented the characteristics of small scale clustered outbreaks with low peak levels. To address how did randomness affect the dynamic clearing process, we derived an iterative stochastic difference equation for the number of newly reported cases based on the classical stochastic SIR model and calculate the stochastic control reproduction number (SCRN). Further, by employing the Bayesian technique, the change points of SCRNs have been estimated, which is an important prerequisite for determining the lengths of the exponential growth and decline phases. To reveal the influence of randomness on the dynamic zeroing process, we calculated the explicit expression of the mean first passage time (MFPT) during the decreasing phase using the relevant theory of first passage time (FPT), and the main results indicate that random noise can accelerate the dynamic zeroing process. This demonstrates that powerful NPI measures can rapidly reduce the number of infected people during the exponential decline phase, and enhanced randomness is conducive to dynamic zeroing, i.e. the greater the random noise, the shorter the average clearing time is. To confirm this, we chose 26 COVID-19 outbreaks in various provinces in China and fitted the data by estimating the parameters and change points. We then calculated the MFPTs, which were consistent with the actual duration of dynamic zeroing interventions.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	stochastic difference model; newly reported cases; change point; mean first passage time; data fitting
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Engineering & Science Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Agriculture, Health & Environment Department Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Pest Behaviour Research Group
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2024 01:38
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/43745

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