Robertson, Richard, De Pinto, Alessandro ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0327-494X and Cenacchi, Nicola (2023) Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion. Climatic Change, 176:108. pp. 1-22. ISSN 0165-0009 (Print), 1573-1480 (Online) (doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3)

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Abstract

The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our findings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	land use; land cover; climate change; cropland; agriculture
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Engineering & Science Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Livelihoods & Institutions Department Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Centre for Society, Environment and Development (CSED) Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Centre for Society, Environment and Development (CSED) > Climate Change
Related URLs:	Publisher
Last Modified:	27 Nov 2024 14:39
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/43458

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