Yang, Huiyi, Dobbie, Steven, Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, Chen, Bing, Qiu, Shaojun, Ghosh, Sat and Challinor, Andy (2020) South India projected to be susceptible to high future groundnut failure rates for future climate change and geo-engineered scenarios. Science of The Total Environment, 747:141240. ISSN 0048-9697 (Print), 1879-1026 (Online) (doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141240)

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Abstract

With an increase in global mean temperature predicted for this century accompanied by more frequent extremes, will farming communities need to brace for increased crop failures and hardship? Solar dimming climate geoengineering has been proposed as a possible solution to combat rising global temperature but what effect will it or other climate related adaptation have on crop failures? We performed a crop modelling study using future climate and geoengineering projections to investigate these questions. Our results indicate that groundnut crop failure rates in Southern India are very sensitive to climate change, and project an increase of approximately a factor of two on average over this century, affecting one out of every two to three years instead of one in every five years. We also project that solar dimming geoengineering will have little impact on reducing these failure rates. In contrast, the projections for the rest of Indian regions show decreasing failure rates of 20-30%. In this research, we indicate why south India is more susceptible than the rest of the country and show that neither Solar dimming geoengineering nor reducing heat or water stress are able to fully counteract the increase in failure rates for this region. Thus our modelling projections indicate the potential for a grountnut crop failure crisis for the South India.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	crop failure, South India, extreme weather, climate change, geoengineering
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Engineering & Science Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Livelihoods & Institutions Department
Last Modified:	26 Jul 2021 01:38
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/28992

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