Yagci, Alper and Oyvat, Cem ORCID: 0000-0002-5097-0246 (2018) Economic Voting and Media Influence in a Competitive Authoritarian Setting: Evidence from Turkey. [Working Paper] (doi:https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3295038)

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Abstract

It is generally assumed that individuals take national economic performance into account while voting. But the question of how perceptions about the economy may be influenced by partisan media remains understudied. Analyzing survey data from Turkey with various robust analysis techniques we demonstrate that reliance on pro government media as a news source makes voters’ economic perceptions significantly more favorable, which in turn increases the likelihood of incumbent vote. In addition, we demonstrate that the audience of pro-government media are more likely to display “sociotropic overestimation”—thinking that the national economy has done better compared to their own household experience; and “counterfactual rationalization”—thinking, regardless of how they view actual economic performance, that it could be worse under alternative leadership. The results suggest that when the economy is manifestly deteriorating, authoritarian incumbents may try to use media influence to convince the electorate that the status quo is better than the alternatives.

Item Type:	Working Paper
Additional Information:	This working paper has been developed into a full article: Yagci, A. H., & Oyvat, C. (2020). Partisanship, media and the objective economy: Sources of individual-level economic assessments. Electoral Studies, 66, 102135: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102135
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Economic voting, media, competitive authoritarianism, Turkey, political behavior, political economy
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Business > Department of International Business & Economics Faculty of Business > Institute of Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (IPEGFA) > Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC)
Related URLs:	Publisher
Last Modified:	10 Sep 2021 08:12
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/23687

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