Wang, Xia, Tang, Sanyi and Cheke, Robert ORCID: 0000-0002-7437-1934 (2016) A stage structured mosquito model incorporating effects of precipitation and daily temperature fluctuations. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 411. pp. 27-36. ISSN 0022-5193 (doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.09.015)

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Abstract

An outbreak of dengue fever in Guangdong province in 2014 was the most serious outbreak ever recorded in China. Given the known positive correlation between the abundance of mosquitoes and the number of dengue fever cases, a stagestructured mosquito model was developed to investigate the cause of the large abundance of mosquitoes in 2014 and its implications for outbreaks of the disease. Data on the Breteau index (number of containers positive for larvae per 100 premises investigated), temperature and precipitation were used for model fitting. The egg laying rate, the development rate and the mortality rates of immatures and adults were obtained from the estimated parameters. Moreover, effects of daily fluctuations of temperature on these parameters were obtained and the effects of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by simulations. Our results indicated that the abundance of mosquitoes depended not only on the total annual precipitation but also on the distribution of the precipitation. The daily mean temperature had a nonlinear relationship with the abundance of mosquitoes, and large diurnal temperature differences can reduce the abundance of mosquitoes. In addition, effects of increasing precipitation and temperature were interdependent. Our findings suggest that the large abundance of mosquitoes in 2014 was mainly caused by the distribution of the precipitation. In the perspective of mosquito control, our results reveal that it is better to clear water early and spray insecticide between April and August in case of limited resources.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	“This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting galley proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.”
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Vector-borne disease; Intervention; Climate factors; Breteau index; Mathematical modeling
Subjects:	S Agriculture > SB Plant culture
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Engineering & Science Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Agriculture, Health & Environment Department Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Pest Behaviour Research Group
Last Modified:	29 Sep 2017 00:38
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/15846

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