Guschanski, Alexander ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7818-8264 and Onaran, Özlem ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6345-9922 (2026) Military, Green, and Care spending multipliers in the UK. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

This report provides a systematic comparison of the economic effects of public expenditure on military equipment, military procurement, green transition investment (renewable energy, energy efficiency, public transport), and the care economy (education, childcare, health and social care) in the United Kingdom. Using a 105-sector input–output model calibrated to the UK national accounts, we estimate output, value-added, and employment (full-time equivalent, FTE) multipliers by gender and report greenhouse-gas emissions effects. We calculate both Type I (direct and indirect effects) and Type II (including induced household consumption effects) multipliers and account for the share of each stimulus that is spent on imported final goods. Across all indicators, care spending generates the largest employment and value-added effects: a £1 million care stimulus creates approximately 22.0 FTE jobs and £1.40 million of gross value added based on Type II multipliers. Military equipment and procurement spending generates value-added and employment effects that are broadly comparable to green transition investment, but yields substantially fewer jobs and less value added than care. Women’s employment effects are particularly low under military spending scenarios, reflecting the gendered occupational structure of defence-related industries. These results do not support the claim that military expenditure constitutes a more effective demand stimulus than care or green alternatives.

Item Type:	Working Paper
Additional Information:	128 Collective is funded by Theresa and Tom Preston-Werner's philanthropy, with wealth stemming largely from Tom Preston-Werner's success as a GitHub co-founder.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	input–output analysis, fiscal multipliers, military spending, green transition, care economy, employment, gender
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF5601 Accounting H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Greenwich Business School Greenwich Business School > Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) Journal of Economic Literature Classification > Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) Greenwich Business School > Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) > Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC) Journal of Economic Literature Classification > Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) > Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC) Journal of Economic Literature Classification > Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC) Greenwich Business School > School of Accounting, Finance and Economics
Last Modified:	03 Nov 2026 14:57
URI:	https://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/54875

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