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Economic Voting and Media Influence in a Competitive Authoritarian Setting: Evidence from Turkey

Economic Voting and Media Influence in a Competitive Authoritarian Setting: Evidence from Turkey

Yagci, Alper and Oyvat, Cem (2018) Economic Voting and Media Influence in a Competitive Authoritarian Setting: Evidence from Turkey. [Working Paper] (doi:https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3295038)

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Abstract

It is generally assumed that individuals take national economic performance into account while voting. But the question of how perceptions about the economy may be influenced by partisan media remains understudied. Analyzing survey data from Turkey with various robust analysis techniques we demonstrate that reliance on pro government media as a news source makes voters’ economic perceptions significantly more favorable, which in turn increases the likelihood of incumbent vote. In addition, we demonstrate that the audience of pro-government media are more likely to display “sociotropic overestimation”—thinking that the national economy has done better compared to their own household experience; and “counterfactual rationalization”—thinking, regardless of how they view actual economic performance, that it could be worse under alternative leadership. The results suggest that when the economy is manifestly deteriorating, authoritarian incumbents may try to use media influence to convince the electorate that the status quo is better than the alternatives.

Item Type: Working Paper
Uncontrolled Keywords: Economic voting, media, competitive authoritarianism, Turkey, political behavior, political economy
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Faculty / Department / Research Group: Faculty of Business > Department of International Business & Economics
Faculty of Business > Institute of Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (IPEGFA) > Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC)
Last Modified: 17 May 2019 10:26
Selected for GREAT 2016: None
Selected for GREAT 2017: None
Selected for GREAT 2018: None
Selected for GREAT 2019: None
URI: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/23687

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