Rosunally, Yasmine, Stoyanov, Stoyan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6091-1226, Bailey, Christopher ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9438-3879, Mason, Peter, Campbell, Sheelagh and Monger, George (2009) Prognostics framework for remaining life prediction of Cutty Sark iron structures. Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2009. Prognostics and Health Management Society, 6 pages.

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Abstract

The Cutty Sark is undergoing major conservation to slow down the deterioration of the original Victorian fabric of the ship. The conservation work being carried out is “state of the art” but there is no evidence at present for predictions of the effectiveness of the conservation work 50 plus years ahead.

A Prognostics Framework is being developed to monitor the “health” of the ship’s iron structures to help ensure a 50 year life once restoration is completed.

This paper presents the prognostics framework being developed using three prognostics approaches:

Physics-of-Failure (PoF) models, Data-driven methods and
a fusion approach integrating both former approaches.

“Canary” and “Parrot” devices have been designed to
mimic the actual mechanisms that would lead to failure of
the iron structures.

A PoF model based on decrease of corrosion rate over time is used to predict the remaining life of an iron structure. Mahalanobis Distance (MD) is used as a precursor monitoring technique to obtain a single comparison metric from multiple sensor data to represent anomalies detected in the system which could lead to failures.

Bayesian Network models integrating remaining life predictions from PoF models with information of possible anomalies from MD analysis, are used to obtain more accurate predictions of remaining life.

As a demonstration, PoF models and MD analysis are applied to a pair of “canary” and “parrot” devices for which corrosion data was generated using temperature, humidity and time as the factors causing corrosion.

Item Type:	Book Section
Additional Information:	[1] This paper forms part of the published proceedings from Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2009. San Diego, CA September 27 – October 1, 2009
Uncontrolled Keywords:	prognostics framework, computer modelling, materials damage, material degradation, prognostic fusion, Cutty Sark, heritage structure, conservation,
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
Pre-2014 Departments:	School of Computing & Mathematical Sciences School of Computing & Mathematical Sciences > Department of Computer Science School of Computing & Mathematical Sciences > Department of Computer Systems Technology School of Computing & Mathematical Sciences > Department of Mathematical Sciences
Related URLs:	Publisher
Last Modified:	13 Mar 2019 11:33
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/4515

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