Gozzi, Nicolo, Bajardi, Paolo and Perra, Nicola ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5559-3064 (2021) The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (9):e1009346. ISSN 1553-734X (Print), 1553-7358 (Online) (doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009346)

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Abstract

The promise of efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is fulfilled and vaccination campaigns have started worldwide. However, the fight against the pandemic is far from over. Here, we propose an age-structured compartmental model to study the interplay of disease transmission, vaccines rollout, and behavioural dynamics. We investigate, via in-silico simulations, individual and societal behavioural changes, possibly induced by the start of the vaccination campaigns, and manifested as a relaxation in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We explore different vaccination rollout speeds, prioritization strategies, vaccine efficacy, as well as multiple behavioural responses. We apply our model to six countries worldwide (Egypt, Peru, Serbia, Ukraine, Canada, and Italy), selected to sample diverse socio-demographic and socio-economic contexts. To isolate the effects of age-structures and contacts patterns from the particular pandemic history of each location, we first study the model considering the same hypothetical initial epidemic scenario in all countries. We then calibrate the model using real epidemiological and mobility data for the different countries. Our findings suggest that early relaxation of safe behaviours can jeopardize the benefits brought by the vaccine in the short term: a fast vaccine distribution and policies aimed at keeping high compliance of individual safe behaviours are key to mitigate disease resurgence.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	COVID-19, vaccines, behavioral changes
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Business Faculty of Business > Department of International Business & Economics Faculty of Business > Networks and Urban Systems Centre (NUSC) Faculty of Business > Networks and Urban Systems Centre (NUSC) > Centre for Business Network Analysis (CBNA)
Related URLs:	Publisher
Last Modified:	12 Nov 2021 13:38
URI:	http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/33597

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