Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts
Rocha, Luis E. C. ORCID: 0000-0001-9046-8739, Liljeros, Fredrik and Holme, Petter (2011) Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts. PLoS Computational Biology, 7 (3):e1001109. ISSN 1553-734X (Print), 1553-7358 (Online) (doi:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1001109)
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20555 ROCHA Simulated_Epidemics_in_an_Empirical_Spatiotemporal_Network_(OA)_2011.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (837kB) | Preview |
Abstract
Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI). Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using SI and SIR models on an empirical temporal network of sexual contacts in high-end prostitution. We compare these results with several other approaches, including randomization of the data, classic mean-field approaches, and static network simulations. We observe that epidemic dynamics in this contact structure have well-defined, rather high epidemic thresholds. Temporal effects create a broad distribution of outbreak sizes, even if the per-contact transmission probability is taken to its hypothetical maximum of 100%. In general, we conclude that the temporal correlations of our network accelerate outbreaks, especially in the early phase of the epidemics, while the network topology (apart from the contact-rate distribution) slows them down. We find that the temporal correlations of sexual contacts can significantly change simulated outbreaks in a large empirical sexual network. Thus, temporal structures are needed alongside network topology to fully understand the spread of STIs. On a side note, our simulations further suggest that the specific type of commercial sex we investigate is not a reservoir of major importance for HIV.
Item Type: | Article |
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Additional Information: | © 2011 Rocha et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | epidemic modeling, network science, simulations |
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group: | Faculty of Business Faculty of Business > Networks and Urban Systems Centre (NUSC) > Centre for Business Network Analysis (CBNA) Faculty of Business > Department of International Business & Economics |
Last Modified: | 09 Nov 2018 17:43 |
URI: | http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/20555 |
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