Rabensteiner, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9289-3579 and Guschanski, Alexander ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7818-8264 (2026) Do recessions accelerate routine-biased technological change in Western Europe? Socio-Economic Review (SER):mwag067. pp. 1-26. ISSN 1475-1461 (Print), 1475-147X (Online) (doi:10.1093/ser/mwag067)

PDF (VoR) 54833 RABENSTEINER_Do_Recessions_Accelerate_Routine-Biased_Technological_Change_(VoR)_2026.pdf - Published Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (2MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

The decline of routine employment is a well-documented feature of high-income economies, commonly attributed to routine-biased technological change (RBTC). This article examines the impact of the Great Recession on RBTC and routine employment in Western Europe. Using a continuous difference-in-differences analysis that leverages variation in recession severity across industries, we establish a set of new findings. First, routine employment declined more slowly in industries more severely affected by the Great Recession. Second, these industries also experienced persistent relative declines in their capital stock, particularly in IT and software capital. These results suggest that the recession slowed RBTC in Western Europe, in contrast to evidence from the United States, where recessions have accelerated it. Lastly, we show that differences in labour market institutions may help reconcile these divergent results: after the Great Recession, routine employment declined more slowly in countries with more regulated labour markets and higher reliance on short-time work schemes.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	routine-biased technological change, employment, Great Recession, automation, labour market institutions, short-time work
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Greenwich Business School Greenwich Business School > Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) Journal of Economic Literature Classification > Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) Greenwich Business School > Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) > Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC) Journal of Economic Literature Classification > Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) > Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC) Journal of Economic Literature Classification > Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC) Greenwich Business School > School of Accounting, Finance and Economics
Last Modified:	26 Oct 2026 12:01
URI:	https://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/54833

Actions (login required)

View Item

Downloads