Aghazadeh, Firouz, Ondrejicka, Vladimir, Rahimi, Akbar, Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar, Sharif, Ayyoob, Husar, Milan, Moshiri, Sajjad, Finka, Maros, Rostamzadeh, Hashem, Teimouri, Iraj and Mashhoodi, Bardia ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7037-3932 (2026) A novel integrated spatiotemporal association and statistical framework revealing urban cooling mechanisms across morphological and climatic contexts. Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS), 143:107328. ISSN 2210-6707 (Print), 2210-6715 (Online) (doi:10.1016/j.scs.2026.107328)

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Abstract

Urban cooling is a key element of sustainable urban design and essential for reducing heat impacts, especially in arid and semi-arid cities. Although research has advanced, most studies treat vegetation as a static, isolated cooling factor and overlook its dynamic interactions with urban form and climate. This limitation hinders the comprehension of spatial variations and temporal shifts in cooling performance. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated, multi-stage framework that models the mediating roles of urban morphology and climatic conditions in vegetation-driven cooling. It conceptualizes urban cooling as a nonlinear, context-dependent process in which NDVI effectiveness depends on its structural factors and climatic context. The study identifies direct and indirect effects of biophysical, morphological, and climatic factors and examines how they have changed from 2000 to 2020. Tehran was selected as the case study, and analyses were conducted using a hexagonal spatial grid of 500 × 500 m. The methodological framework integrates Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Bivariate Lee’s L-index, multi-level regression, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), and a Random-Effects Meta-Analysis. The results indicate that urban cooling is not solely a biophysical phenomenon but emerges from synergistic interactions among spatial configuration, morphological density, and climatic drivers. Empirical findings reveal a pronounced decline in the Urban Green Space (UGS) Cooling Index from 2.61 in 2000 to 0.26 in 2020, accompanied by an increase in the Built-Up Cooling Index from 0.50 to 1.00, suggesting a relative redistribution of cooling functionality within the urban fabric. Cluster-level analyses demonstrate substantial spatial heterogeneity, with selected clusters retaining strong explanatory power (R² > 0.80), whereas others exhibited a marked decline in cooling performance, as indicated by index values exceeding 6 in 2020. Notably, PLS-SEM results reveal a conceptual inversion over time: urban morphology shifted from being the dominant heat-inducing factor in 2000 (β = 0.67) to the principal cooling determinant in 2020 (β = −1.08), whereas NDVI exhibited a modest effect (β = 0.30), and climatic variables exerted a significant constraining influence (β = −0.83). The proposed framework offers a transferable decision-support tool to enhance thermal resilience, reduce environmental inequalities, and advance Sustainable Development Goals 3, 11, and 13 in arid and semi-arid urban contexts.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate-sensitive urban morphology, hexagonal spatial analytics, urban form, heat mitigation, urban heat
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Engineering & Science Faculty of Engineering & Science > School of Computing & Mathematical Sciences (CMS)
Last Modified:	13 May 2026 12:09
URI:	https://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/53390

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