Kuligowski, Erica D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6121-4983, Morrison, Rosie, Gwynne, Steve ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2758-3897, Atas, Gulsah, Lovreglio, Ruggiero, Roohafza, Fatemeh and Kimball, Amanda (2026) A theoretical framework explaining evacuation travel behaviour in bushfires: a qualitative study of destination and mode choices. Fire Safety Journal, 162:104782. ISSN 0379-7112 (Print), 1873-7226 (Online) (doi:10.1016/j.firesaf.2026.104782)

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Abstract

An understanding of how evacuees travel during bushfires remains limited, with existing research offering little consensus on the key influential factors. Additionally, bushfire studies often overlook key psychological and social (i.e., unobservable or latent) factors that may serve as mediators in evacuation travel decisions. Drawing on seminal theories commonly used in non-emergency transportation research, this study proposes a novel theoretical framework explaining destination and mode choices in bushfire evacuation, highlighting the role of observable and latent factors in the choices made. Qualitative data from 52 semi-structured interviews with fire survivors from three Australian locations, conducted between May and August 2024, have been analysed. Findings reveal new insights for bushfire evacuation literature, including the impact of attitudes (e.g., affordability, emotional support), familiarity, social connections (e.g., strength of ties), and perceived behavioural control on destination choices; as well as links between mode choices and perceived social responsibility, social connections, affect, and attitudinal factors of comfort, safety, and flexibility in travel. By addressing the omission of latent factors in current bushfire studies, this study enables the development of more comprehensive empirical models predicting bushfire evacuation travel behaviour, and in turn, improved evacuation simulation tools, community-wide evacuation plans, and real-time evacuation decision-making during fires.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This work has been funded by the first author's ARC Future Fellowship by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council (Grant No. FT220100618).
Uncontrolled Keywords:	bushfire, wildfire evacuation, travel behaviour, destination choice, mode choice
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group:	Faculty of Engineering & Science Faculty of Engineering & Science > School of Computing & Mathematical Sciences (CMS)
Last Modified:	13 Apr 2026 13:50
URI:	https://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/52825

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