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Climate change impacts on crop yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and maize (Zea mays) and soil organic carbon stocks in Northern China

Climate change impacts on crop yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and maize (Zea mays) and soil organic carbon stocks in Northern China

Liu, Chuang, Yang, Huiyi, Gongadze, Kate, Harris, Paul ORCID: 0000-0003-0259-4079, Huang, Mingbin ORCID: 0000-0001-9792-3124 and Wu, Lianhai ORCID: 0000-0003-0221-9009 (2022) Climate change impacts on crop yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and maize (Zea mays) and soil organic carbon stocks in Northern China. Agriculture, 12 (5):614. pp. 1-12. ISSN 2077-0472 (Online) (doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12050614)

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Abstract

Agricultural system models provide an effective tool for forecasting crop productivity and nutrient budgets under future climate change. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on crop failure, grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) for both winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) in northern China, using the SPACSYS model. The model was calibrated and validated with datasets from 20-year long-term experiments (1985–2004) for the Loess plateau, and then used to forecast production (2020–2049) under six sharing social-economic pathway climate scenarios for both wheat and maize crops with irrigation. Results suggested that warmer climatic scenarios might be favourable for reducing the crop failure rate and increasing the grain yield for winter wheat, while the same climatic scenarios were unfavourable for maize production in the region. Furthermore, future SOC stocks in the topsoil layer (0–30 cm) could increase but in the subsoil layer (30–100 cm) could decrease, regardless of the chosen crop.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This article belongs to the Section Ecosystem, Environment and Climate Change in Agriculture.
Uncontrolled Keywords: SPACSYS; crop failure; soil organic carbon; modelling; loess
Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Faculty / School / Research Centre / Research Group: Faculty of Engineering & Science
Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute
Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Ecosystem Services Research Group
Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > FaNSI - Climate Change, Agriculture and Natural Resources
Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Livelihoods & Institutions Department
Last Modified: 29 Nov 2022 15:13
URI: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/38108

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