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The global economic burden of violent conflict

The global economic burden of violent conflict

de Groot, Olaf J., Bozzoli, Carlos, Alamir, Anousheh and Brück, Tilman ORCID: 0000-0002-8344-8948 (2021) The global economic burden of violent conflict. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433 (Print), 1460-3578 (Online) (In Press)

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Abstract

Calculating the consequences of global public bads such as climate change or pandemics helps uncover the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. As violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, whether directly or indirectly, this paper sets out to estimate its global repercussions. Using a novel methodology that accounts for multiple dimensions of conflict, the paper finds that, in the absence of violent conflict since 1970, the level of global GDP in 2014 would have been, on average, 12% higher. When disaggregating these results by conflict type, civil conflicts are estimated to have been the costliest by far. GDP growth is found to be altered up to four years following the end of a conflict, although the direction of this relationship depends on the intensity and type of conflict. Countries also suffer significantly from conflict in neighbouring countries, thereby showing the importance of mitigating spillovers rapidly. The largest absolute losses associated with conflict emanate from Asia, while many high-income economies are found to benefit economically from participating in conflicts on foreign soil. This analysis thus shows that, despite some evidence of a faster post-conflict growth and possible benefits for external participants, violent conflict leads to net global losses that linger long after peace is achieved.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: fragility, internal armed conflict, international war, conflict spillover
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
J Political Science > JZ International relations
Faculty / School / Research Group: Faculty of Engineering & Science
Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute
Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Livelihoods & Institutions Department
Related URLs:
Last Modified: 13 Sep 2021 09:01
Selected for GREAT 2016: None
Selected for GREAT 2017: None
Selected for GREAT 2018: None
Selected for GREAT 2019: None
Selected for REF2021: None
URI: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/33853

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