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A FEER Model for the Equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US Dollar Real Exchange Rate

A FEER Model for the Equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US Dollar Real Exchange Rate

You, Kefei ORCID: 0000-0001-7253-5838 and Sarantis, Nicholas (2009) A FEER Model for the Equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US Dollar Real Exchange Rate. [Working Paper] (Unpublished)

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Abstract

This paper provides an application of the FEER model to the real exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar. An important contribution is that we incorporate into the sustainable current account fundamentals that reflect the unique features of the Chinese economy but have not been employed by previous studies. Another contribution is the construction of a unique data set of consistent time series for economic fundamentals and trade-related variables, which allow us to carry out an econometric investigation of trend and sustainable current accounts and compute the FEER for both pre- and post-reform periods. The empirical results show that both the sustainable and trend current account surpluses have been steadily rising since the early 1990s. Chinese exports appear to be more price elastic, while imports are more income elastic. The misalignment rates suggest that the RMB was overvalued against the USD during the pre-reform period and has been undervalued for most of the postreform period, particularly since 2003. However the misalignment rates are not as large as suggested by previous studies.

Item Type: Working Paper
Uncontrolled Keywords: Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate; Real CNY/USD; Misalignments; China
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF5601 Accounting
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Faculty / Department / Research Group: Faculty of Business
Faculty of Business > Department of Accounting & Finance
Last Modified: 27 Feb 2019 16:01
Selected for GREAT 2016: None
Selected for GREAT 2017: None
Selected for GREAT 2018: None
Selected for GREAT 2019: None
URI: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/21407

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