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Sensitivity to temporal and topological misinformation in predictions of epidemic outbreaks

Sensitivity to temporal and topological misinformation in predictions of epidemic outbreaks

Holme, Petter and Rocha, Luis E. C. ORCID: 0000-0001-9046-8739 (2017) Sensitivity to temporal and topological misinformation in predictions of epidemic outbreaks. In: Masuda, Naoki and Holme, Petter, (eds.) Temporal Network Epidemiology. Theoretical Biology (THBIO) . Springer, Singapore, pp. 43-55. ISBN 978-9811052866 ISSN 2522-0438 (doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-5287-3_3)

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Abstract

Structures both in the network of who interact with whom, and the timing of these contacts, affect epidemic outbreaks. In practical applications, such information would frequently be inaccurate. In this work, we explore how the accuracy in the prediction of the final outbreak size and the time to extinction of the outbreak depend on the quality of the contact information. We find a fairly general stretched exponential dependence of the deviation from the true outbreak sizes and extinction times on the frequency of errors in both temporal and topological information.

Item Type: Book Section
Additional Information: Chapter 3.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Incomplete information, temporal networks
Faculty / Department / Research Group: Faculty of Business > Centre for Business Network Analysis
Faculty of Business > Department of International Business & Economics
Last Modified: 04 May 2018 15:27
Selected for GREAT 2016: None
Selected for GREAT 2017: None
Selected for GREAT 2018: None
Selected for GREAT 2019: None
URI: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/19640

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