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Modeling the effects of augmentation strategies on the control of Dengue fever with an impulsive differential equation

Modeling the effects of augmentation strategies on the control of Dengue fever with an impulsive differential equation

Zhang, Xianghong, Tang, Sanyi, Cheke, Robert A. ORCID: 0000-0002-7437-1934 and Zhu, Huaiping (2016) Modeling the effects of augmentation strategies on the control of Dengue fever with an impulsive differential equation. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 78 (10). pp. 1968-2010. ISSN 0092-8240 (Print), 1522-9602 (Online) (doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-016-0208-7)

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Abstract

Dengue fever has rapidly become the world’s most common vector-borne viral disease. Use of endosymbiotic Wolbachia is an innovative technology to prevent vector mosquitoes from reproducing and so break the cycle of dengue transmission. However, strategies such as population eradication and replacement will only succeed if appropriate augmentations with Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes that take account of a variety of factors are carried out. Here, we describe the spread of Wolbachia in mosquito populations using an impulsive differential system with four state variables, incorporating the effects of cytoplasmic incompatibility and the augmentation of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes with different sex ratios.We then evaluated (a) how each parameter value contributes to the success of population replacement; (b) how different release quantities of infected mosquitoes with different sex ratios affect the success of population suppression or replacement; and (c) how the success of these two strategies can be realized to block the transmission of dengue fever. Analysis of the system’s stability, bifurcations and sensitivity reveals the existence of forward and backward bifurcations, multiple attractors and the contribution of each parameter to the success of the strategies. The results indicate that the initial density of mosquitoes, the quantities of mosquitoes released in augmentations and their sex ratios have impacts on whether or not the strategies of population suppression or replacement can be achieved. Therefore, successful strategies rely on selecting suitable strains of Wolbachia and carefully designing the mosquito augmentation program.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © Society for Mathematical Biology 2016
Uncontrolled Keywords: Dengue fever; Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes; Bifurcation; Mosquito augmentation
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QH Natural history
Faculty / Department / Research Group: Faculty of Engineering & Science
Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute
Faculty of Engineering & Science > Natural Resources Institute > Pest Behaviour Research Group
Last Modified: 03 Jan 2018 10:27
Selected for GREAT 2016: None
Selected for GREAT 2017: None
Selected for GREAT 2018: None
Selected for GREAT 2019: None
URI: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/15875

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