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Modeling Contact and Mobility Based Social Response to the Spreading of Infectious Diseases

Modeling Contact and Mobility Based Social Response to the Spreading of Infectious Diseases

Vespignani, Alessandro and Perra, Nicola (2013) Modeling Contact and Mobility Based Social Response to the Spreading of Infectious Diseases. In: Manfredi, Piero and D'Onofrio, Alberto, (eds.) Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases. Springer New York, New York, US, pp. 103-123. ISBN 9781461454731 (doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5474-8_7)

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Abstract

We present here a set of prototypical mechanisms aimed at modeling the social adaptation and response triggered in the population by the knowledge of the spreading of an infectious disease. We define models that couples the spreading of information and behavioral changes with the spreading of the infectious disease by considering the local and non-local prevalence-based information available to individuals in the population. The behavioral changes are modeled both as the onset of effective social distancing and contact reduction as well as changes in the mobility patterns of individuals. The defined models exhibit a rich phase space with multiple epidemic peaks and threshold behavior. In addition, we show that in specific cases the change of mobility pattern may counterintuitively enhance the disease spreading. The class of models presented here can be used in the case of data-driven computational approaches to analyze scenarios of social adaptation and behavioral change

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: Modeling infectious diseases
Faculty / Department / Research Group: Faculty of Business > Centre for Business Network Analysis (CBNA)
Faculty of Business > Networks and Urban Systems Centre (NUSC) > Centre for Business Network Analysis (CBNA)
Last Modified: 14 Oct 2016 09:37
Selected for GREAT 2016: None
Selected for GREAT 2017: None
Selected for GREAT 2018: None
Selected for GREAT 2019: None
URI: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/14934

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