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Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

Tee, Kong Fah ORCID: 0000-0003-3202-873X, Khan, Lutfor Rahman and Li, Hongshuang (2014) Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 130. pp. 125-131. ISSN 0951-8320 (doi:

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This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: [1] Received date: 22 June 2013, Revised date: 12 May 2014, Accepted date: 16 May 2014. Available online 4 June 2014 - In Press, Accepted Manuscript. [2] Cite this article as: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li, Application of Subset Simulation in Reliability Estimation of Underground Pipelines, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, [3] Note from publisher (Elsevier): "This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting galley proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain."
Uncontrolled Keywords: subset simulation, probability of failure, Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation, reliability, failure modes, underground pipes
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Faculty / Department / Research Group: Faculty of Engineering & Science > Department of Engineering Science
Faculty of Engineering & Science
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Last Modified: 21 Apr 2017 10:48
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