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Employing back casting principles for the formation of long term built asset management strategies - A theoretical approach

Employing back casting principles for the formation of long term built asset management strategies - A theoretical approach

Jones, Keith, Desai, Apeksha and Mulville, Mark (2014) Employing back casting principles for the formation of long term built asset management strategies - A theoretical approach. In: Proceedings of CIB Facilities Management Conference. Using Facilities in an Open World - Creating Value for All Stakeholders. Joint CIB W070, W111 & W118 Conference. Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 21-23 May 2014. International Council for Research and Innovation in Building Construction (CIB) / Polyteknisk Forlag, Copenhagen, Denmark, pp. 317-328. ISBN 9788750210696

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Abstract

Facilities managers have traditionally relied on forecasting approaches using the stock condition survey to predict maintenance and refurbishment needs against changing user requirements. However, the authors have previously shown that such an approach, whilst
effective for short term planning, is unable to cope with the uncertainty and complex data sets required to develop long term plans (> 10 years), in particular the impact of future climate change (physical and legislative). This paper will present back casting as an alternative approach
to support long term built asset management planning.

Background: Back casting has been applied to sustainable transport management, energy planning and community climate change adaptation projects. The process in principle envisions a future state (end-point) set by stakeholders. Alternative ‘paths of approach’ are identified by looking backwards from the future state to the present. Each path is examined in turn to identify interventions (physical and/or operational) required in order for that path to
achieve the end-goal. The stakeholder’s review each path and select the most appropriate for achieving the desired (end-point). This path is then integrated into the facilities (built asset) management strategy.

Approach: The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of an action research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of the building and integrate these into a 60 year facilities management plan.

Results: The paper superimposes back casting theory onto the adaptation process and explains how the theory supported long term facilities management planning. The paper also explains how the approach was used to provide confidence for the building owner to invest in the planned refurbishment of their built asset to improve its future performance and sustainability.

Practical implications: The paper demonstrates the application of this approach through a case study example of a newly constructed £75 m educational building. A similar approach could be applied to other building types.

Research limitations: This paper presents a theoretical model which needs to be validated using longitudinal data sets. Originality/value: This is the first paper to suggest the potential of back casting to inform long term built asset management strategies.

Originality/value: This is the first paper to suggest the potential of back casting to inform long term built asset management strategies.

Item Type: Conference Proceedings
Title of Proceedings: Proceedings of CIB Facilities Management Conference. Using Facilities in an Open World - Creating Value for All Stakeholders. Joint CIB W070, W111 & W118 Conference. Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 21-23 May 2014
Additional Information: [1] Presented at CIB Facilities Management Conference, Joint CIB W070, W111 & W118, held 21-23 May 2014, in Copenhagen, Denmark. Theme: Using Facilities in an Open World - Creating Value for all Stakeholders. Paper 12, in Research track 8: Sustainability and climate change.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change; Back casting; Facilities management; Built asset management
Subjects: N Fine Arts > NA Architecture
T Technology > TH Building construction
Faculty / Department / Research Group: Faculty of Architecture, Computing & Humanities
Faculty of Architecture, Computing & Humanities > Department of Built Environment
Faculty of Architecture, Computing & Humanities > Sustainable Built Environment Research Group (SBERG)
Related URLs:
Last Modified: 04 Dec 2017 10:26
Selected for GREAT 2016: None
Selected for GREAT 2017: None
Selected for GREAT 2018: None
URI: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/11670

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